The Fall Shift.
What the DMV market is really saying.
A plain-language read on rates, inventory and buyer activity across DC, Maryland and Northern Virginia, prepared for HomeLab clients and agents. Data as of October 5, 2026.
6th straight rise
year over year
year over year
cut, essentially flat
The short version
Inside this report
The rate jump is now the dominant story.
Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average climbed from 7.03% to 7.28% on October 1. That is the largest weekly increase in four years and the sixth consecutive weekly increase. A year ago, the same average was 6.34%.
30-year fixed average, Freddie Mac
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What that means on a $640,000 loan
| Rate | When | Est. monthly P&I | Difference vs. 7.28% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.34% | Average a year ago | $3,978 | About $401 less |
| 6.76% | Average three weeks ago | $4,155 | About $224 less |
| 7.03% | Average the prior week | $4,271 | About $108 less |
| 7.28% | Average as of Oct. 1 | $4,379 |
If you were pre-approved two or three weeks ago, that approval may no longer reflect a payment you're comfortable with. Before you tour or write an offer near the top of your budget, ask us to have your lender re-price your numbers. A small rate change can move your comfortable price range more than you'd expect.
Illustration only, not a loan quote or offer of credit. Principal and interest on a 30-year fixed loan; excludes taxes, insurance and HOA fees. Freddie Mac figures are national averages; your rate depends on credit, down payment, loan type and lender. Contact a licensed loan officer for a personalized quote.
The slowdown is real. It is not a crash.
For the week ending September 27, buyer activity across the Washington metro dropped sharply while the number of homes for sale kept climbing. New contracts also fell 9.1% from the week before, so this is more than a post-Labor Day lull.
Washington metro, change vs. same week last year
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The weekly numbers
| Metric | Week ending Sept. 27 | Year over year |
|---|---|---|
| Showings | 14,485 | −17.6% |
| New contracts | 947 | −19.5% |
| New listings | 1,434 | +4.1% |
| Active listings | 12,539 | +20.3% |
| Median days to contract | 34 days | 5 days longer |
| Listings with a price reduction | 10.3% | Essentially flat |
six-jurisdiction tracker
same tracker
The recent drop is meaningful, but 2026 as a whole has been close to last year. Buyer participation fell while choices increased. That creates room to negotiate without producing a broad drop in prices.
Sources: Bright MLS weekly data, Washington metro; six-jurisdiction contract tracker as cited in the HomeLab weekly brief.
Leverage is real, but it is concentrated.
Metro inventory is 20.3% above last year, contracts are nearly 20% lower, and contract cancellations are up 41.8%. That combination puts real pressure on sellers whose homes haven't attracted buyers.
But fewer contracts doesn't mean every good home is sitting. Corcoran McEnearney's tracker found that homes that did go under contract averaged 41.7 days on market, versus 44.2 days last year. Part of that is selection: it measures the homes buyers chose, not the larger group still unsold. Still, it tells us the right homes are moving.
year over year, metro
that went under contract
Our offer strategy, by type of listing
| If the home is... | Our approach |
|---|---|
| Fresh, turnkey, detached | Move quickly. Price the offer with current micro-market comps, not metro headlines. These homes still attract decisive buyers. |
| On market 21 to 30+ days | Test seller-paid closing costs, permanent or temporary rate buydowns, repairs and flexible settlement terms. A buydown can be worth more to you than a price cut. |
| Price-reduced or previously cancelled |
Find out why first. The seller's motivation, and what caused a prior contract to fall through, should shape how hard we push. |
| Any home | Keep your protections. A slower market is never a reason to waive inspections, financing or appraisal safeguards by default. |
Sources: Bright MLS; Corcoran McEnearney contract tracker, as cited in the HomeLab weekly brief.
The jurisdictions are separating further.
The metro average hides very different local markets. Suburban inventory is building faster than DC's, and buyer pullback is steepest in Loudoun.
Weekly new contracts, change vs. last year
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Active inventory, change vs. last year
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What each market means for you
| Market | Latest signal | Decision lens |
|---|---|---|
| Fairfax | Contracts −28.5%; median days to contract up from 26 to 32 | Much more choice, but updated detached homes in preferred school pyramids can behave differently. |
| Loudoun | Contracts −37.6%, but contracted homes averaged 29.1 days vs 44.7 last year | Fewer buyers, yet well-positioned homes still find decisive buyers. |
| Montgomery | Contracts −27.8%; contracted homes averaged 45.1 days | Stronger opening for inspections, credits and home-sale timing terms. |
| Prince George's | Contracts −15.7% | Buyers have more alternatives. Sellers need sharp pricing and presentation from day one. |
| Washington, DC | Showings −20.8%; contracts −5.8% | Lower participation without the suburban inventory build. Condos need the most scrutiny. |
Weekly data as cited in the HomeLab weekly brief. Neighborhood and price-band comps always override county aggregates.
Making the right move in this market.
If you're selling
Price against today's active competition, not just spring closings. Inventory is building faster than contracts, so buyers are comparing your home to more alternatives than they had six months ago. Presentation and pricing at launch matter more than ever.
If you're buying
Refresh your payment range before you tour near the top of your budget. Then target leverage where it exists: homes that have been on the market 21+ days are where credits and rate buydowns are most realistic.
If you're moving up: two paths
| Path | Best for | Trade-offs to plan for |
|---|---|---|
| Sell first | Maximum certainty. You know your proceeds before you commit to the next home. | Possible interim housing or a rent-back; less flexibility on timing. |
| Synchronized sale and purchase |
Moving once, with both settlements coordinated. | Financing and contingency risk: a home-sale contingency weakens your offer, and bridge options carry cost. |
Maryland: earnest money rules changed October 1
Maryland's SB 691 took effect October 1. It updates the definition of a qualifying contingency and shortens the time to distribute deposit money from 30 days to five days after the statutory objection period ends. If you're buying or selling in Maryland, our team is using the current broker-approved forms and notice procedures, and we'll walk you through what it means for your deposit.
What we're watching next
- October 8: the next Freddie Mac rate release.
- Around October 11 to 12: September monthly reports for DC and the metro. These will show whether this is mainly a rate-driven pause or the start of a broader fall repricing.
Get a personal payment refresh and a plan for your price band and county.
HomeLab · 1604 Spring Hill Rd, Vienna, VA. [ INSERT Real Broker brokerage name, license and Equal Housing Opportunity disclosure ]. Information is believed reliable but not guaranteed and is not legal or financial advice. Consult the appropriate licensed professional for your situation.