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HomeLab with Real Broker · Market Intelligence
DMV Q1 2026
Market Snapshot
Virginia · Maryland · Washington, D.C. | Data: BrightMLS & NVAR, April 2026
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Q1 is in — and the DMV is telling two very different stories. Northern Virginia is surging. Loudoun County has less than 5 weeks of supply. NVAR reported 1,336 closed sales in March alone — up 11.2% year-over-year. Meanwhile, Washington D.C. is the clear outlier, sitting at nearly 5 months of supply with a 55-day median days on market — the highest reading since 2019. Here's the full picture.
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Regional Pulse
$760K
NoVA Median
March 2026
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25 days
NoVA Avg
Days on Market
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+11.2%
NoVA Closed Sales
YOY March
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25%
Contract Fall-Through
Rate (DMV-Wide)
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Northern Virginia
A Seller's Market — Still
| Jurisdiction |
Median Price |
DOM |
YOY |
Supply |
Signal |
| Arlington County |
$819,000 |
7 days |
+7.9% |
1.82 mo |
Hot |
| Fairfax County |
$768,000 |
6 days |
+1.7% |
1.26 mo |
Hot |
| Loudoun County |
$774,000 |
34 days |
+3.0% |
1.13 mo |
Tightest |
| Alexandria City |
$695,000 |
12 days |
-0.7% |
~1.5 mo |
Active |
| Falls Church City |
$925,000 |
~18 days |
+5.0% |
<1 mo |
Premium |
| Prince William Co. |
$555,000 |
41 days |
+0.9% |
~2.0 mo |
Balanced |
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| Fairfax & Arlington: Homes are going under contract in 6–7 days with active listings down 3–4% YOY. March closed sales in the NVAR region hit $1.18 billion in total volume — a 10.2% increase. This is not a softening market. |
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Washington, D.C.
The Outlier: Buyer Leverage is Real
| Metric |
Q1 2026 |
YOY |
Context |
| Median Sale Price |
$677,000 |
+3.3% |
March 2026 (Redfin / BrightMLS) |
| Median Days on Market |
55 days |
+36 days |
Highest since 2019 |
| Months of Supply |
~5.0 months |
Rising |
Above 3-mo. balanced threshold |
| Homes Sold (March) |
530 units |
-1.1% |
vs. 536 in March 2025 |
| Contract Fall-Through |
25% |
5-yr high |
1 in 4 deals collapsing (BrightMLS) |
| D.C. Condo Inventory |
2× normal |
vs. Q1 2020 |
Avg asking price down 9.4% YOY |
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| D.C. is the only Mid-Atlantic market projected to see price softening in 2026. The condo market is the epicenter — inventory at 2× pre-pandemic levels and average list prices down 9.4% year-over-year. For buyers: this is real negotiating leverage. For sellers: price precision and presentation matter more than ever. |
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Metropolitan Maryland
Bifurcated — Know Your County
| Jurisdiction |
Median Price |
Avg DOM |
YOY Price |
Signal |
| Montgomery County |
$650,000 |
33 days |
+6.5% |
Strong |
| Howard County |
$565,000 |
26 days |
-4.2% |
Stable |
| Prince George's Co. |
$428,000 |
~56 days |
-3.8% |
Value Play |
| Frederick County |
~$480,000 |
~35 days |
+3–5% |
Growth |
| Maryland Statewide |
$447,000 |
47 days |
+4.6% |
Mixed |
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What to Watch — Spring 2026
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Sellers: Now Is the Window
Post-Easter through Memorial Day is historically the peak showing-traffic period. BrightMLS data confirms this is the best moment to list in 2026 — especially in NoVA.
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Buyers: Rate Reality
30-year fixed rates at 6.38% (Freddie Mac, March 26). More inventory in D.C. and PG County than any time since pre-pandemic. Patient, pre-approved buyers have real leverage.
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Investors: Entry Window
PG County and Frederick County remain the strongest cash-on-cash rental plays. D.C.'s softness = acquisition upside for patient capital. NoVA flips tracking 14–35% ROIC.
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Wild Card: Federal Jobs
DOGE-related workforce uncertainty is the primary D.C.-specific risk. Northern Virginia's tech and defense sector diversification provides the strongest insulation in the region.
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Tazeen Qudsi · HomeLab with Real Broker
Licensed in Virginia · Maryland · Washington, D.C.
Data sourced from BrightMLS, NVAR, Redfin, and publicly available Q1 2026 reports.
Statistics reflect Jan–Mar 2026 unless otherwise noted.
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